Ogun 2019: Is Dapo Abiodun Jinxed?

“Turning and turning in the widening gyre, the falcon no longer hears the falconer.”

The above quotation from Chinua Achebe’s Things fall apart aptly captures what is going on in Ogun state All Progressives Congress, APC, which has pitted the governor of the state, Senator Ibikunle Amosun against the gubernatorial candidate, Prince Dapo Abiodun.

Ordinarily, what should have been a roller coaster campaign for Prince Abiodun is fast becoming an uphill task because of the insistence of Governor Amosun that he will not support Abiodun to succeed him. The bone of contention was how Abiodun emerged without the blessings of Amosun who has become a godfather of sort in Ogun politics.

Amosun’s grouse stem from the fact that some political ‘cabal’ in Lagos foisted Dapo Abiodun on the state to ‘capture’ the state.

Although, former governor of the state and a stalwart of the APC, Chief Segun Osoba is pulling his weight to support Abiodun, it is not yet uhuru for the Hyden Oil Boss. Even the assurance from President Muhammadu Buhari that he would support Abiodun has not been too convincing. This is based on the premise that Amosun, a close ally of President Buhari has gone to meet him with the assurance that the Allied Peoples Mandate , APM, a political party through which his candidate, Abdukadir Akintunde Akinlade will contest will support Buhari for his re-election. President Buhari also commended the APM for endorsing him and received the letter at the Aso Rock Villa recently.

The political atmosphere in Ogun state is becoming heated up that former President Olusegun Obasanjo, a forthright ago at Ibogun Olaogun Day’s celebration counseled Governor Amosun who was at the ceremony not to rupture the peace being enjoyed in the state because of political differences. The former president has narrowed the gubernatorial contest between his own candidate, Gboyega Nasir Isiaka of the African Democratic Congress, ADC, and Amosun’s APM candidate, Akinlade.

Is Abiodun jinxed? That is the question in Ogun state among the political commentators. Will history repeat itself?

Amosun also benefited from such ‘roforofo’ fight among the gladiators in the ruling party (PDP) in 2011. The then governor, Otunba Gbenga Daniel formed Peoples Party of Nigeria, PPN, to promote his own candidate, Gboyega Nasir Isiaka, when he lost the PDP ticket to Gen. Adetunji Idowu Olurin, who was the candidate of former president Obasanjo and Buruji Kashamu. In the ensuing melee, Senator Amosun became governor on the platform of the APC. Ironically, Amosun seems to be toeing the same line in 2019.

Abiodun on his own part has a long history of political failure/betrayal.

It will be recalled that Abiodun won an election as a senator representing Ogun east during Gen Sani Abacha’s Transition but was not sworn-in. In 2002, when it was almost certain that he would get the ticket of the Peoples Democratic Party to contest the gubernatorial, his godfather , Jubril Martins Kuye dumped him in a controversial circumstances and endorsed Otunba Gbenga Daniel who eventually won the election and became governor. Though, the Iperu-Remo born politician gave a good account of himself during the primary, he stepped down thereafter and joined Oil business where he made his fortune.

He came back into mainstream politics in 2011. It was even rumored that he supported Amosun with N200m for his campaign. He contested the Ogun east senatorial election again in 2015 and lost to the PDP candidate, Buruji Kashamu. Now, that he won the governorship primary in a controversial circumstances all hell was let lose. And with Amosun, who supposed to lead his campaign saying over his dead body will Abiodun succeeed him, it remains to be seen if Abiodun will break the jinx this time around.

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