Atiku: Wike’s Biggest Miscalculation

Not so many people know the man Atiku Abubakar, most new entrants into politics just chance upon his name without doing any deep political research on him, so they draw the usual run-off-mill assumption in the name of conclusion that Atiku is just another usual politician who will expire  soon.

Let me clear some of your doubts, Atiku is a politician who has no intention to retire, if Atiku leaves politics he can hardly remain alive, politics has become part of his DNA ever since he left Customs over 30 years ago for active Politics, he has remain active, he is going nowhere. It is better to work with him than work against. Atiku is not a part time politician, he is a professional.

Atiku was in the arrowhead of activism for call to Democracy in Nigeria so he is a jungle expert when it comes to political guerrilla tactics, what we call (Sari Ka Noke) it is an unconventional warfare that you attack and hide, it normally last a long time with maximum damage to opponents. This was how they fought to get the Military back to their barracks, not so many people know that.

As if that is not enough, Atiku is a master, talented businessman who has navigated multi-million dollar Companies to higher grounds, any politician with resources; both human and capital is unstoppable, except with apparatus of state, like Buhari employed in 2019.

Atiku is a highly skilled politician who has won and lost elections, so only the use of undemocratic tactics like Buhari employed in 2019 can defeat him now, because he knows all the bends and the twist.

If only Wike had intelligent advisers, the moment Atiku declared to run for the PDP ticket for 2023, Wike should have opted out. I gave this advice in one of the whatsapp groups we belong to with Wike and in another with Tambuwal’s adviser, I am not sure Tambuwal withdrew because of my advice, I don’t think so. 

Tambuwal only saw the handwriting on the wall. It was clear he will not win so he did a political master stroke, withdrew for the most likely winner among them, who eventually won.

Let me digress a little to explain a  certain myth that has been bandied by some supporters of Wike, that had Tambuwal not withdrawn, Wike would have won the PDP primaries, that Tambuwal betrayed Wike’s support for him in 2019.

The votes’ gap between Atiku and Wike who came second is about 134 votes, the third person to Atiku and next to Wike had about 70 votes, that is Saraki. Now, do the maths, none of the candidates got up to 100 votes after Wike, so, even if Tambuwal had remained in the race he wouldn’t pull up to 100 votes, yet Atiku would have still won albeit with a smaller gap, Tambuwal was only politically smart and calculative. Bala Mohammed was on the ballot, also a sitting Governor like Tambuwal, Udom and Wike.

Bala Mohammed got 20 votes, while Udom got 38 votes. Tambuwal’s withdrawal only added flavor to the event, shows his smartness, but certainly not a betrayal, neither was it a reason for the outcome.it was a deft political move that saw him bounce back to National limelight, Wike blew away that opportunity and even doing so now.

Wike and his group ought to know that if Atiku didn’t run, Wike would still not have gotten the Ticket with Saraki in the race, because PDP was in search of a National Candidate of which Saraki ranks above Tambuwal and Wike in terms of National political outlook and  national spread, moreover the Saraki political generation is next in line after Atiku’s generation then it will be followed by Wike, Tambuwal, Udom and others. Everyone has his time.

Now for Wike or just anyone to think he can stop Atiku at the General election in 2023, the person must be politically naive, how do you intend to stop a man whom against your support came to your state Capital in 2019 and still won the Primaries? Isn’t that like trying to move Zuma rock to a different place? 

Look! Till today Nigerians know that Atiku won the 2019 elections but the instrumentality of the state was used to subvert the victory, now another opportunity has come before Nigerians with a more credible process like the use of BVAS but all you can think of is how to stop that man? Think again! Strategy, it will be futile, instead join him to win together like Tambuwal did at the Primaries.

Like I advised before the primaries, I will advise again, it is better to stop all rants, all the undermining and all the anti-party and anti-Atiku activities and join hands with the likely, most experienced, most prepared candidate to win the 2023 election, Atiku Abubakar so that at victory you can negotiate all the goods for your people you claim you are fighting for. 

Nzogbu-Nzogbu is not Politics, Politics is lobbying, negotiation and networking.

Yahaya M Sai- Baba

Writes from Minna

Twitter: @boyemdee