Nigeria Can’t Afford Meddling In Niger Republic Militarily

By Mark Adebayo

“One day, President Roosevelt told me that he was asking publicly for suggestions about what the war should be called. I said at once ‘The Unnecessary War'” – Winston Churchill

YESTERDAY, I read in the news that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu wrote to the Senate of the Federal Republic of Nigeria to request permission to deploy Nigeria’s military for intervention in the political crisis in neighboring Niger Republic should the military junta refuse to abide by the demand of the Economic Community of West Africa, ECOWAS, to reinstate the overthrown “democratically elected” President Mohamed Bazoum.

The second President of the United States of America, John Adams, once said “Great is the guilt of an unnecessary war”. This great counsel was ignored when America unwittingly committed huge resources and personnel into an unnecessary war in Vietnam for 21 long years from 1954 to 1975. In that war, America, with its humongous military powers and unequaled conventional and nuclear arsenal, according to the Vietnam Conflict Extract Data File of the Defense Casualty Analysis System (DCAS), the United States lost an estimated 58, 220 soldiers and expended $168 billion, a whopping One Trillion Dollars by today’s calculation!The result? America and its ally, South Vietnam, lost the war. South Vietnam, backed by the all-powerful America, surrendered in humiliation to the communist North Vietnam in April 1975. So much for pokenosing into the internal affairs of another country.

Now, the question is, can Nigeria succeed where America failed? No! I daresay. America was very unpopular and unwelcome in Vietnam. A worse scenario awaits Nigeria and its other West African allies if they venture militarily into Niger Republic.

The coup that toppled President Mohamed Bazoum was a very popular one among Nigeriens because his government was a complete failure and Nigeriens were already fed up with him. It is not only a country’s soldiers that fight in a war. Any war not supported by the civil populace cannot be won by armed soldiers. But in today’s Niger Republic, the country’s civilians are fully behind the military junta and are fully mobilized to counter any external military incursions into their country.

In such a situation, irrespective of the fact that the population of Niger is one eighth of Nigeria’s, any military incursions into that country would amount to a complete misadventure for Nigeria and its allies. The people will sabotage them and they will suffer devastating losses even with the backing of Western powers.

Not only are Nigeriens opposed to any external intervention in their country, even majority of Nigerians do not support Nigeria’s military intervention in Niger Republic. They say we should mind our own business. Therefore, it’s a dead-on-arrival scheme. Once citizens don’t have a collective consensus backing their military for a war, it’s already a lost cause.

Earlier in the week, Nigeriens went out in their numbers to protest against any ECOWAS military intervention in their country. In that protest, our President’s picture featured prominently banners displayed by the protesters and they were calling him many derogatory names.

For instance, his name Bola was changed to ebola, that intractably killer virus that has killed hundreds, if not thousands, in Africa. Nigerians cannot afford war on triple fronts at the moment – fighting insecurity and bad economy on the home front, added to a foolish war with our neighbors. It’s a no-no consensus here. If Nigeria has enough resources to deploy for war with Niger Republic, that should be better used to cushion the excruciating economic effects of the subsidy removal. I’m sure the president is aware, as he has owned up, that Nigerians are passing through hard times currently and he knows why. He can’t afford to pile more pressures on the country’s meagre resources and the already overburdened Nigerians who would bear the extra burden of an avoidable war.

To even remotely contemplate military intervention in Niger Republic with our subsisting fragile economy and internal security challenges is a sign of egregious lack of understanding of the realities of the country’s compromised security status and a function of mere fatuous egotripping.

I don’t know who the President wants to please by this clearly zany path but certainly not Nigerians and not Nigeriens. Should the Senate approve the President’s request to deploy Nigeria’s military to Niger Republic as I fear they might for obvious reasons, it would be the most daring madcap action by the Tinubu administration which could even end his presidency in an extreme odd turn. A popular uprising back home against the negative effects of such outrightly unpopular military ‘akproko’ into another country might provoke mass disaffection in the Nigerian military especially if they begin to suffer mass casualties and consequently actuate a military coup even here.

The President’s policy and diplomatic advisers are either dumb or are his and this country’s enemies. Of what strategic importance is Niger Republic to Nigeria and in what ways would a military pustch have negative effects on those strategic interests? A country we supply electricity and partly refurbished its railways.

Nigeria expended about $10 billion on its ECOMOG operations in Liberia and lost hundreds of soldiers needlessly. Nigeria’s ECOMOG escapades in Liberia has been properly tagged “heroic failure” by analysts. In the late 1980s when Nigeria led other West African countries to intervene militarily in Liberia, our economy was stronger, our military was better equipped and we had no internal security challenges like Boko Haram and ISWAP that still ravage us in the North.

At the end of the day, ECOMOG was an unnecessary misadventure that bled the country financially and in human lives. Democracy does not necessarily translate to good governance. Meanwhile, the only step to prevent military coups against democratically elected governments in Africa is good governance, not by making example of another country via external military incursions by others. If politicians in power don’t want military coups anymore, they should actively embrace good governance and kill corruption. Bad governance and corruption are siamese calamities in Africa and military coups will persist for as long as that double element of overbearing roguish malaise by the rulers persists. Whether democracy or military rule, it is the sole responsibility of the people of Niger Republic to determine what’s best for them. If they choose the military as it’s clear they have, so be it. Democracy is about free choice of leadership. If Nigeriens have chosen their military over their politicians, that’s their democratic choice and right.

If diplomacy fails to restore democracy in Niger Republic, the Economic Community of West Africa should let the country be.

Nigeria, in particular, should never put boots on the ground in that country. We can’t afford any external war at the moment. If we have so much money to prosecute a war in another country, let’s use it to better the lives of Nigerians that have been thrown into excruciating poverty by the crazy increases in the pump prices of petrol and other commodities.

If we have so many soldiers to spare for a foreign war, let’s use those to crush Boko Haram and killer herders ravaging our country.

Simplicita!