The Machinery Of State Capture And How The People Can Defeat Tinubu In 2027-By Mark Adebayo

“We have had 10 years of bad governance, and we may not recover if another bad government is elected.” – Amarinder Singh.

After Charles McArthur Taylor became Liberia’s president in August 1997 by force of arms, he made a statement to the end that “Liberia is my pepper bush, and I’m the only one allowed to perch on it”. More like Louis the 16th’s “L’etat c’est moi” condescending declaration that cost him both his crown and his life. Arrogance of power is a self-consuming leviathan that is an immutable nemesis of demagogues blinded by the evanescent grandeur of political authority.

The 2027 general elections in Nigeria promises to be a significant turning point for Nigeria, politically speaking, for good or otherwise. President Tinubu’s administration has been a disaster, no doubt. Ordinarily, a bad president who is inflicting bad policies on the people should automatically lose reelection. But in Nigeria, politics is not a simple arithmetic that gets 2+2 equated to 4.

This is more so when you have in action a humongous state capture machinery well oiled by obnoxious power mongering and ginormously intimidating resources to buy anyone and anything – from state institutions and agencies to, even, non-state actors and traditional institutions – the political arithmetic cannot arithmetically align, neither can it mathematically square.

It is in the character of ruling cliques to weaponize poverty and hunger in order to keep the people perpetually subservient to their whims and caprices which ensures a regime of power rotation among the rapacious political goons to whom Nigeria is their “pepper bush” and they are the only birds allowed to perch on it. The peppery policies of the Tinubu administration is an uncanny allegory to the harrowing experiences of Nigerians under the current dispensation.

Ever and anon, I have maintained that Tinubu sure knows how to win elections or rig them. He understands the dark sciences or, more accurately, the dark magic of getting elections won by hook or crook and no politician in today’s Nigeria can beat him in that magical art. Yes, he knows how to win elections but has extremely poor governance capabilities. He can win elections, but he cannot govern. Simplicita!

At least, the last two years have exposed him as an egregiously incompetent president who focuses more on politics than actual governance. Nigeria has been on a meltdown economically and in the areas of security and development since Tinubu’s administration came into office. The deficits are unprecedentedly devastating to majority of Nigerians. The president seems to enjoy the bumpy roller coaster towards state failure while he is on the driver’s seat tending only to his personal health and consolidating his political empire for ultimate state capture.

While the political opposition is still floundering and groping about in the dark, Tinubu is already looking beyond his second term. I make bold to say that the third term agenda that President Obasanjo failed to achieve in 2007 might just happen with Tinubu if his political body language is anything to go by and if the ‘opposition’ continues to behave like a bullheaded falcon that can’t hear the falconer.

Tinubu is playing a sudden death political game with the 2027 elections by which he plans to complete a comprehensive scheme of state capture through orchestrating a one-Party state and a third term presidency. That’s the endgame, ultimately. Make no mistake about it, one-Party state in this case doesn’t mean that only the APC will survive Tinubu’s deadly electoral Tsunami. It means that the APC will continue to coexist with a few hapless political Parties that would be rendered malleable to the ruling Party and the presidency in the deceptive guise of ‘opposition’ Parties. The signs are already manifesting. We are likely to witness another case where most of the surviving political Parties would come together to adopt President Tinubu for second term as happened under late General Sanni Abacha. That is the nature of the shameful rot of Nigerian politics.

Political Parties and prominent politically exposed persons are already jumping ship into the ruling APC or preparing to. We have seen some Party national chairmen dissociate themselves from any tag of opposition and actively supporting the president. On the face value, it does seem that the opposition is bleeding badly and looks like it’s already struck a fatal blow President Tinubu’s political armada, but Tinubu is still beatable. The biggest opposition coalition against President Tinubu and his APC are the Nigerian masses themselves who have suffered excruciating pains and disastrous economic woes under Tinubu’s anti-people, incompetent, extremely corrupt, and wicked administration. We don’t need 20 or 10 or even 2 Governors in the opposition to beat Tinubu in 2027. What needs be done is to mobilize the mass of Nigerian voters around a single credible and capable presidential candidate to beat Tinubu. So far, I believe that both Adewole Adebayo of the Social Democratic Party and Peter Obi of the Labour Party fit this bill perfectly. Either of the duo can do the trick if only one of them can pull off a masterstroke and deliberate political stratagems that can galvanize the people around a focal agenda that resonates with the people.

It is only the people’s structure erected on solid foundations of patriotic commitment that can defeat Tinubu in 2027. A solid structure of the people outside of political Party structures that is well coordinated and articulated is a powerful political arsenal that can give Nigerians the patriotic and empathetic president that we so desperately desire. What this entails is for a presidential aspirant to see the glow of light at the end of this dark tunnel of Nigeria’s leadership tragedy and be ready to pay the price of reaching the people and convincing them to trust him or her. This is no skittle and beer stuff. It entails a unidirectional and unwavering commitment to achieving the goal of salvaging Nigeria from its slide into dictatorship, backwardness, and state failure ultimately and be ready to sacrifice a lot for to make that happen. Unfortunately, it does appear to me that we are yet to see the one willing to bell the cat and get the job done. Wining the presidency of a country goes beyond only goodwill and perfunctory lip service or inconsistent actions.

Tinubu is beatable in 2027. But, who is willing to do the hard work?

Mark Adebayo is seasoned rights activist, columnist, published author, and strategy consultant, inter alia. He is the current national Spokesperson of the Coalition of United Political Parties, CUPP.