If Opposition Fails To Achieve Consensus; The Predictable Blowback!
By Mark Adebayo
Divided opposition Parties always lose power to a strong incumbent. Nigeria now faces this exact danger ahead of the 2027 presidential election. President Bola Tinubu holds the advantages of incumbency added to his renowned capabilities to win elections even when severely disadvantaged. In 2023, without the support of President Muhammadu Buhari who was the leader of his ruling Party, against all odds he not only won the Party’s primary but went ahead to win the election proper amidst a deluge of litigations and scandals related to his schooling, credentials, parenthood, origin, and general identity. Everything about him was being questioned and litigated over as it is being done currently.
But amidst that labyrinth of complications, litigations, and opposition, he somehow managed to untangle himself and coasted to victory. This is not a man that a fragmented opposition can defeat especially now that he holds all the consequential advantages of incumbency.
If the opposition remains split, his victory is certain. Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi remain the heavyweights of the opposition. They command massive loyal voter bases across the country. If neither man steps down to support the other, the opposition vote will fracture badly. That is brutally foreboding. A split vote hands the election directly to the ruling Party on a silver platter. History has richly availed us the cost of division. History proves that fractured opposition Parties hand easy victories to ruling elites.
In Zambia in the 90s, opposition groups spent years fighting one another. They could only defeat the sit-tight ruler, Kenneth Kaunda, when they finally united behind Frederick Chiluba. Unity worked because votes did not scatter.
The Kenyans did not realize the political efficacy of a united front until 2002. Daniel Arap Moi ruled for 24 years. The opposition won power only when they formed a single strong coalition. Division in later years cost them dearly when they failed to agree on one candidate.
In France, splintered leftist and centrist factions repeatedly struggled until they consolidated against extremist threats. Divided groups simply bleed support. Math does not lie. If Atiku and Obi both stay on the ballot in 2027, they divide the anti-establishment vote. Tinubu needs only a plurality in a crowded field to secure a second term.
Peter Obi holds a slight edge over Atiku to beat the incumbent. The opposition must pick the strongest and most viable flagbearer. Peter Obi possesses distinct advantages that make him a superior choice over Atiku Abubakar for the opposition ticket. For instance, the Regional factor cannot be overlooked. Power rotation remains a powerful sentiment in Nigeria. Obi hails from the South. Backing a Southern candidate satisfies the unwritten regional balance after years of Northern and Southern rotations, neutralizing a key pillar of the ruling Party’s regional strategy. Obi sparked an unprecedented wave of political awakening among young Nigerians in 2022 and 2023. His appeal cuts past traditional ethnic and religious fault lines better than older-generation politicians.
Atiku has run for president multiple times over two decades. Voters associate him deeply with the old political establishment. Obi projects an image of fiscal prudence and systemic reform that resonates with weary citizens.The opposition faces a simple choice. They can pursue personal ambition or choose collective victory. Ego must yield to strategy. Atiku Abubakar must recognize that repeating past runs splits the crucial reformist vote. Stepping aside to back Peter Obi offers the opposition its only realistic path to victory. Failing to achieve this consensus guarantees a landslide win for the ruling party.
The injurious opposition fragmentation is already taking its fatal tolls on the opposition as some devoted opposition actors, disenchanted by the fragmentation and seeming lack of intentionality in the opposition camps are already staying aloof. On the face value, this may not seem serious. But as time goes on, the impact of their absence or, even, reverse opposition activism may draw a significant amount of blood to further weaken the opposition.
Unless the main opposition closes their ranks and the G-100 achieves a historic result of getting the leading candidates to agree on fielding a single consensus presidential candidate for 2027, the opposition might as well kiss victory goodbye and start preparing for 2031. I’ve said this at several fora and I don’t care how anyone feels about that. I’m patiently waiting for the outcome of the G-100 meeting before I make my final decision on how to navigate my political voyage, especially regarding the 2027 presidential election.
The leading opposition candidates are already at each other’s neck by publicly and angrily disagreeing on major policy thrusts. You only have to watch their positions and counter-positions at the ongoing annual conference of the Nigerian Bar Association, NBA, on the contentious issue of the fuel subsidy.
Opposition fragmentation and misalignment are Tinubu’s intrinsic political gains, and he will take a full advantage of it.
Quite predicable!
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Comrade Mark Adebayo, MPhil, is a strategy consultant, human rights and opposition activist, newspaper columnist, researcher and published author. He is the Executive Director of SecureWorld and Liberty Initiative for Peace, SELIP, an Abuja-based NGO and Convener of New Direction for Nigeria Movement, NEDMO.
